Forecast BTC
← BackProbability estimate based on historical data. Not financial advice.
Price + forecast (6m)
History left • NOW center • Forecast right
1 month
→ Flat
Up probability: 45%
0%
Prob up
100%
Target: $74,672
Range: $63,113 – $92,385
Why this
Current price
$78,275
Momentum (6m)
-0.84%/mo
Volatility
10.25%
Months used
12
Monthly returns (12m)
Forecast vs Actual (Monthly)
Year: 2025
| Month | Start price | Actual price | Actual, % | Forecast (p50), price | Error, % | Range (p10–p90), price | Actual range, % | 📈 Price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | $96,475 | $102,074 | 5.80% | $62,647 -35.06% | 40.87 | $53,701 – $93,027 -44.3% – -3.6% | 14.88% | |
| Feb 2025 | $99,348 | $84,762 | -14.68% | $102,074 2.74% | 17.43 | $95,083 – $134,316 -4.3% – 35.2% | 18.28% | |
| Mar 2025 | $87,425 | $85,260 | -2.48% | $56,772 -35.06% | 32.59 | $49,535 – $80,645 -43.3% – -7.8% | 13.43% | |
| Apr 2025 | $86,736 | $96,860 | 11.67% | $85,260 -1.70% | 13.37 | $74,768 – $107,948 -13.8% – 24.5% | 25.37% | |
| May 2025 | $97,344 | $104,716 | 7.57% | $96,860 -0.50% | 8.07 | $84,029 – $120,873 -13.7% – 24.2% | 18.69% | |
| Jun 2025 | $104,423 | $105,958 | 1.47% | $101,838 -2.48% | 3.95 | $89,094 – $126,110 -14.7% – 20.8% | 10.90% | |
| Jul 2025 | $108,735 | $115,357 | 6.09% | $103,173 -5.12% | 11.21 | $91,460 – $125,787 -15.9% – 15.7% | 11.39% | |
| Aug 2025 | $112,855 | $108,781 | -3.61% | $113,579 0.64% | 4.25 | $100,494 – $137,781 -11.0% – 22.1% | 11.55% | |
| Sep 2025 | $110,835 | $117,397 | 5.92% | $71,398 -35.58% | 41.50 | $62,628 – $104,396 -43.5% – -5.8% | 7.86% | |
| Oct 2025 | $119,902 | $110,290 | -8.02% | $117,397 -2.09% | 5.93 | $108,988 – $140,908 -9.1% – 17.5% | 16.97% | |
| Nov 2025 | $110,123 | $84,686 | -23.10% | $110,142 0.02% | 23.12 | $98,900 – $129,811 -10.2% – 17.9% | 32.79% | |
| Dec 2025 | $90,847 | $88,039 | -3.09% | $53,921 -40.65% | 37.56 | $46,420 – $78,068 -48.9% – -14.1% | 6.83% |